Sunday, December 31, 2006

The environment: why people will care, sooner or later

photo: European Environment Agency (click on photo for site)

Humans have changed a lot of things. Of these, there are some things that should be changed, like poverty, like monarchy. But the relentless pursuit of development has had its ramifications on the environment. Considering that the environment is the pillar of our very existence, blessing us with clean air, water, sufficient food, and good land to farm and build, that's probably something we don't want to change.

Shock and awe

It is a proven biological and social concept that the more gradual a change, the better humans and wildlife alike are able to adapt to the change and the felt impact of the change is therefore reduced. We see this all the time - in the wild, most animals have been able to survive the gradual transition from the ice age to today, while the dinos were all wiped out with a sudden temperature drop due to a giant meteorite; and in more civilised society, we've been able to cope with a gradual tripling of oil prices, but thai stocks plummeted after the sudden, unexpected (and bird-brained) institution of capital control measures.

For the past couple of hundred of years, ever since the industrial revolution kickstarted our pollutive and eco-unfriendly ways, our world's climate and environment has been changing - but gradually. Now, there's a kind of delayed-feedback mechanism here, hence the gradual change: if you slash and burn a football-sized area of forest today, you're not going to get a football-sized patch of barren land tomorrow, or even a month later.

The trouble is that the damage we did, and are still doing, to the environment has increased exponentially - so, logically, the wounds the environment's going to show will also increase exponentially. That goes to say, this change we're talking about isn't going to be gradual any longer.

To exacebate the situation - notice that we're haven't been getting the proportionate amount and scale of feedback from our inputs to the environmental system. For example, carbon dioxide levels since the industrial revolution have gone way off the scale (almost 3 times the natural fluctuation of the past million years). One, that isn't any gradual change; Two, remember delayed-feedback? We may not feel the full impact of this now, but it's sure to come back to haunt us.

So that's pretty much a time-bomb on our hands. And we're already seeing a sneak preview of it exploding:For one, the five hottest years on record have occured within the last 7-8 years, we've seen deadly heatwaves in europe; The 2005 Atlantic hurricane season is the most active in recorded history (with memorable monsters like Katrina) and also the most devastating (causing at least 2,280 deaths and US$100 billioin in damages).

Since it's neither insignificant nor gradual, is highly visible and dramatic, and (best of all) hits people where it hurts most - in terms of dollars and cents and human lives, it's going to have a whopping felt impact. That's just a sneak preview, the tip of the iceberg - and Bush is already having problems dealing with it. When the shock and awe really starts, the environmental movement will not only infiltrate every level of politics, but also cause the masses to join today's few sore-throat, lost-hope environmentalists in creating an unprecendented amount of ground support. That's when we'll really have to sit up and do something about it.


Capitalist self-regulation

Elementary economics tells us that any economic system self-regulates to balance supply and demand - if supply goes down, price goes up, therefore demand tends to go down. As our fossil fuels and other natural resources gradually get depleted, supply will tend to go down (the production of several OPEC countries are already falling below their quota due to drying-up oil fields - and let's not talk about overstated oil fields yet). Hence the price of natural resources will go up, and in fact, the oil price has tripled and stabilised at almost that level - and it seems unlikely to head south in future.

This means two things: Firstly, businesses and governments alike will reduce their consumption of pollutive fossil fuels natural resources, so pollution would tend to go down. One visible example of this is the aircraft industry, in which "fuel efficiency" is the buzzword - aircraft manufactors are going to great lengths to reduce fuel consumption, for example by using expensive composites - such that the airbus A380 has nearly the same fuel consumption as the old Boeing 747.

Secondly, green technology would appear much cheaper in comparison, hence higher adoption of green technology, and increased funding for green R & D is likely. And this, for sure, is a good thing, since green technology not only reduces consumption of natural resources but attempts to be environmentally-friendly in every way, hence promoting environmentalism even more, and reduces the damage we do to the environment

Also, it is becoming increasingly obvious that many things we take for granted - like the environment's capacity to absorb pollution, water resources, fertile soil... are finite, but self-replenishing resources, since pollution and other damage to the environment are having more and more visible ramifications - e.g. in the form of desertification and/or land degradation when unsustainable farming methods are used. Hence some form of governmental regulation will - eventually - surface to ensure that we do not the damage we do the environment and the self-replenishing resources (i prefer not to use the term "renewable") do not exceed its ability to recover from our damage and replenish those resources and hence is sustainable, and will not deplete these resources or irreversibly damage the environment. And this is what we have seen in international fishing quotas, and sulphur dioxide emission treaties (sulphur dioxide emissions has actually decreased).

Economic agendas may be a distraction from the environmental one, especially in countries like China, but only a temporary one. The environment is one irreplaceable pillar of any economy - whether in terms of providing water, electricity, or fertile land for farming. If the environment collapses, so will the economy. When this happens, or hopefully, before this happens, people will care about the environment, and take steps in that direction


But will it be too late?

When we talk about damage to the environment, there is a point of no return: Do enough damage to the environment fast enough, and it will be irreversably wrecked, with no capability to repair itself. The principle is similar to that on wildlife: wildlife can adapt to changes in the ecosystem, but if the change is big enough and fast enough, that species just goes extent.

So the question is whether we have crossed that point of no return. Only time will tell. Judging from the scale of the damage to the environment, and the fact that we only started this havoc business during the industrial revolution (only slightly over 200 years ago), one thing's for sure - that point of no return isn't very far away, if we haven't crossed it yet. But to be pessimistic is to be defeatist. The human race has every reason to be optismistic and take steps to ensure that we do not cross that point, beyond which, the capacity of Earth to support life, and our very own existence, is to be questioned.

It starts with you and me. Now or never.


Recommended reading / viewing: The inconvenient truth (movie or book) (Al Gore's educational campaign on global warming)

Wednesday, December 27, 2006

My flickr: now up

Finally done my flickr... see it here. Do pop by to take a look. Any feedback is very much appreciated! Thanks.

To all the RI peeps: Enjoy what's left of your holidays (if you're not chiong-ing chinese homework...)

Saturday, December 23, 2006

Merry christmas

Aiyah quite some time never blog liao... very busy recently with RIPB, science club ESP, OBS etc. stuff. budden i'm a little bit of a workaholic...

Came back from thailand a few days ago, had quite a fun trip. Some friends brought my family on a road trip to west and north thailand, then we go back to bangkok for shopping. my mum quite addicted to shopping in bangkok, but the things are really cheap... we came back with 4 boxes, luggage exactly just nice, 1 more kg then overweight. The food also very good, somemore got $2 ramen shop (hachiban ramen)... i love jap food. I fly budget (tiger airways) then comeback that time raining, no aerobridge so got to chiong to terminal from plane, like joker like that. but $9 ticket (plus around $50 taxes and surcharge) cannot complain lah...

Haiz, 4 years go thailand 6 times liao (bangkok 4 times - yes my mum addicted to shopping, then phuket 2 times) Next year dowan to go thailand anymore. Go australia better. Go japan or europe even better but very ex, though it's damn nice. I've been to hamburg, germany before, and it's so lovely.

Have a blessed christmas everyone! And go listen to some christmas carols from the mrbrown show... but admidst all the celebration and shopping, let's not forget what we are celebrating: the birth of Jesus, who came to earth as a sacrifice for our sins, and whose death paid for our sins and brought us forgiveness and eternal life. Let us not let this true meaning of christmas be lost in a shopping spree and a windfall of presents.

Friday, December 08, 2006

Tongue in cheek



Btw, i'll be away in thailand from 9-19 dec... going bangkok, chiangmai, some province in west thailand and some hilltop national park in north-west thailand (yes it's the 3rd year running i'm going to bangkok... my mum's addicted to shopping in MBK, and i just love the SGD$2 ramen at ichiban ramen). My parents' thai friends will be bringing us around. Apparently they say the nightime temp at that hilltop park is 5deg! As cold as beijing ?! We'll see...

Sunday, December 03, 2006

Beijing exchange programme

Beijing was fun. I'll leave the political-economical analytical ramblings on China tourism and economic development and capitalism vs communism blah blah blah till another post... so here is just the fun side of it :-)


The city

With capitalism taking hold, displacing communism, and its rapid economic development, Beijing was seriously better than I expected. Well, while toilets at the great wall still stink, much of Beijing is clean and, shockingly, green - on the roadsides, and in the many parks (a reflection as the city's historic status as the emperor's home). Ok, correction, most trees in warm temperate climate are deciduous, and it's late autumn/winter now, but you get the point. Crime is at at a record low. The streetscape is starting to look a bit like japan.

There's still plently of congestion everywhere - in the airport, in their MRT, on the roads (you're probably better off walking during peak hours, save for the wintery weather), but heavy and continued investment in infrastructure (e.g. tiered road interchanges, up-and-coming MRT lines, more and new buses) has indeed helped to solve the problem.

The weather

Much better than singapore, to say the least. But seriously, I prefer cold weather :-) Dun sweat at all... This time, weather at beijing was around 6 to -2, and there was very light snow on sat morning.


The sights & the shopping

Ok we went to the usual tourist attractions... great wall, tiananmen, forbidden city, bla bla bla... but what really struck me was the richness of history and culture in beijing.

Oh and I did quite a bit of shopping :-) Most are dirt cheap, if u know how to bargain. But many of the shops will jack up the price if they see u r a foreigner, so while shopping with china pple, i shut up and got them to bargain for me - well, I look local enough, but i'll give the game away once i open my mouth. And another big sore point is their service... mostly damn lousy... and they'll try to cheat you by giving you fake notes (luckily i didn't kena this) as well as try not to give you your change (more than one shop "forgot" to give me until i asked).

Ok, in fact, too much shopping. My luggage quite badly overweight (luckily they didn't care as it was group check-in) and i had to sit on top to close it. Heng ah can close...


The school & the students

Again, in many ways a pleasant surprise. 人大附中 School facilities are good (in some aspects better than RI.. especially the canteen food). The students are damn enthu and really demonstrate class and school spirit (nationalism?) - unlike here. Ok I said i'll leave the analysis of capitalism and collective action till another post... so I'll resist... And they are really warm and welcoming. I had 2 buddies (xiaoyao and xiaodi), since the one that came to singapore (xiaoyao) and I attended class with couldn't host me for homestay. Both r really nice, and so is xiaoyao's class (junior 2/13) - had a really nice time talking to them, interacting with them, and they gave me a whole lot of things. Big thanks to them for making this trip such a pleasant one

But china's education system still has room for improvement. It focuses too much on memorisation and rote learning, and too little on independent critical and creative thinking. My buddy's mum ranted a lot on this... but seriously, you can't have much discussion with class sizes of 50. Anyhow, despite this, their students are really smart, and their willingness to work hard will serve them well.

Btw.... the pic to the left is of special significance to jianxiong. Ok jianxiong i'm not spilling the beans here.


The food

Quite good. Especially those signature specialities like beijing duck, zhajiang noodle etc. It's mostly spicier, salitier, oilier, and fatter than singapore - pretty scrumptions, but not for the health-conscious. If you're on a weight-loss progamme, beijing's probably not fo you. Food's much cheaper than singapore too.


Accomodation

Above expectations. We stayed in the school's hostel, and it's definitely much better than RI boarding (from what I heard). Pretty clean, with all the necessary facilities, and good heating and hot water. They even have an "activity room" with table tennis tables, dvd player etc. etc.


Final notes

Quite a fun trip :-) And certainly an eye-opening one. Thanks to all those who have made this trip possible, and I also thank the lord for keeping me safe


P.S. more photos available on jianxiong's photo album . Some photos mine, some his. Specific people welcome to request specific photos (hinthint)

Saturday, December 02, 2006

Class allocations

Hi everyone. before i sort out the photos and post on my beijing trip, just a quick update on sec 3 2007 class allocations.

I'm in 3C 2007. These are the pple in 3C 2007 excluding scholars and new students (yah i went to school today to see): Disclaimer: accuracy not guaranteed.

2A 2006 Beck Jong Hyun (trip sci lit)
2B 2006 Nair Manish (trip sci geog) (geog RA)
2B 2006 Tanuj James Geoge (trip sci lit)
2B 2006 Zhao Yang (trip sci geog other(?))
2C 2006 Kristian Lee (trip sci lit) (lit RA)
2C 2006 Daniel Tan (trip sci geog) (geog RA)
2D 2006 Ashish Kumar (trip sci lit) (lit, geog(?) RA)
2D 2006 Huang Renyong (trip sci lit) (chem, bio RA)
2D 2006 Samuel Tay (trip sci lit MEP(?)) (lit, chem RA)
2D 2006 Wang Yuxin (trip sci lit other) (chem RA)
2H 2006 Aaron Tang (trip sci geog) (physics/chem/bio RA (?))
2H 2006 Toh Ying Jie (trip sci lit) (lit, chem RA)
2K 2006 Ren Yan (trip sci geog) (geog/chem/bio RA)
2L 2006 Conan Chui (trip sci lit) (lit RA)
2M 2006 Me (trip sci geog) (geog,chem RA)
2M 2006 Peh Shingbo (trip sci geog) (geog RA)
2P 2006 Kenneth Goh (trip sci geog other) (chem,bio RA)
2P 2006 Huang Wenjie (trip sci geog jap) (geog, bio RA)
2P 2006 Daniel Lim (trip sci geog) (physics(?), chem RA)
2Q 2006 Joshua Tung (trip sci lit) (lit RA)
2Q 2006 Choon How (trip sci lit) (lit RA)


As u can see there's no shortage of 3.94 and 4.0s... And besides, it's pretty easy for the PRC scholars to get 4.0 (chinese and maths no question, same goes for 3 sciences (except maybe bio), they can't do geog or hist and definitely not lit so instead they do CHINESE lit, then english is a problem, so for sec3, they take "English 2/ English B" i.e. easier CTs...).

So that's a receipe for competition... Survival of the fittest it will be!


ERRATA: I missed out the following pple: Wong yong sheng, Yan Bing Yi, Jonathan Lian, Gabriel Tan. And there will be 7 new students (6 PRC / 1 Indian) to make up a total class size of 32